NY Fed September Survey: Inflation Expectations Tick Up at the Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons
FED
2024-10-16According to the New York Fed's September Consumer Expectations Survey, consumers' one-year-ahead inflation expectation remains stable at 3%, while the three-year-ahead inflation expectation rises to 2.7% and the five-year-ahead expectation increases to 2.9%. Most labor market-related surveys remain stable.
On October 15, ET, the New York Fed released the September 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), with the main content as follows:
Inflation
The median inflation expectation for the next year is 3%, unchanged from the previous value of 3%.
The median inflation expectation for the next three years is 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.5%.
The five-year-ahead inflation expectation is 2.9%, compared to the previous value of 2.8%.
As Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0 to 3.3% since August 2023.
Year-ahead commodity price expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point for food to 4.5%. They declined by 0.2 percentage point for gas to 3.4%, by 1.4 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 6.6%, and by 1.0 percentage point for rent to 6.3%.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%. Mean unemployment expectations declined by 1.5 percentage points to 36.2% in September. The decline was broad-based across education and household income groups.
The mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next 12 months increased to 20.4% from 19.1%. The increase was most pronounced among respondents below age 40.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one's current job was lost increased to 52.7% from 52.3% in August. The series remains below its 12-month trailing average of 53.6%.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%, which remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%. Median household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased for the fourth consecutive month to 14.2% from 13.6% in August. This is the highest reading of the series since April 2020. Nonetheless, year-ahead expectations improved. Despite this, respondents' outlook for the coming year has improved. More people anticipate that the financial situation and credit access will improve, thanks to a strong job market, rising U.S. stock prices, and falling interest rates.
September Consumer Expectations Survey
